Lots of controversy about whether or not we need extreme shelter-in-place requirements with many businesses closed during this Coronavirus. I’ve been pretty convinced based on health, science conclusions and recommendations the answer was a resounding “YES”! Then, as I was readying for bed the other night I heard a name mentioned on the news that I recognized. Seems he had been involved with conducting some research that was bringing the necessity of closed businesses and sheltering-in-place into question.
“Via Stanford's Hoover Institution -- Dr. Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine at Stanford University. He is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a senior fellow at both the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and the Stanford Freeman Spogli Institute.
His March 24, 2020, article in the Wall Street Journal questions the premise that “coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines.” In the article, he suggests that “there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.”
Dr. Bhattacharya was asked “in this edition of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson to defend that statement and describe to us how he arrived at this conclusion. We get into the details of his research, which used data collected from hotspots around the world and his background as a doctor, a medical researcher, and an economist. It’s not popular right now to question conventional wisdom on sheltering in place, but Dr. Bhattacharya makes a strong case for challenging it, based in economics and science.”
His March 24, 2020, article in the Wall Street Journal questions the premise that “coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines.” In the article, he suggests that “there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.”
Dr. Bhattacharya was asked “in this edition of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson to defend that statement and describe to us how he arrived at this conclusion. We get into the details of his research, which used data collected from hotspots around the world and his background as a doctor, a medical researcher, and an economist. It’s not popular right now to question conventional wisdom on sheltering in place, but Dr. Bhattacharya makes a strong case for challenging it, based in economics and science.”
Here’s Dr. Bhattacharya youtube interview discussion of test results for COVID-19 conducted “in Santa Clara County, California, one of the most active hotspots in the country”. Another study recently completed with results to be released soon was done in partnership with Major League Baseball. He mentions even another recently completed interesting-sounding study with results soon to be released.
There is discussion of “some signs of hope, and specifics about how the economy can be restarted safely and efficiently. Dr. Bhattacharya also gives some (unsolicited) advice to Dr. Anthony Fauci, California governor Gavin Newsom and president Donald Trump.”
There is discussion of “some signs of hope, and specifics about how the economy can be restarted safely and efficiently. Dr. Bhattacharya also gives some (unsolicited) advice to Dr. Anthony Fauci, California governor Gavin Newsom and president Donald Trump.”
Well, what to think now about opening up our businesses and how we safely go about it? How much do we need to shelter-in-place? Should we continue to mask? There is so much still unknown about this virus.
No matter what develops on businesses reopening, I remain convinced this U.S. President, his Administration, have failed and continue to do so in seeing that our medical community has the potentially life-saving PPE (personal protective equipment) needed. There must be accountability when the immediacy of the challenges we face now have reached some level of resolution.
Considering Dr. Bhattacharya’s present research results, I look forward to the eminent reports to come. Confessing to being a news junkie, I’ll be interested in what actions our California governor, Los Angeles mayor and that of our own City Council take in the days and weeks ahead. Certainly, the words and actions of our nation’s President will be of concern as well as what other states’ leaders do, and how residents react.
Ventura County California is expected to become the first area in our state to loosen restrictions including opening golf courses and allowing more access to their beaches which were never completely closed. People age 70-75 and older are still recommended to stay inside.
I live in northeast Los Angeles County and continue to stay inside my house. I wear my mask whenever I venture out to occasional drive-thrus, or as I did today to pick up pre-ordered items brought to my car. Only a half-block from my home I returned when I realized I had forgotten my mask. Thinking of the virus I was reminded of the businesses reopening issue, controversy of need to shelter-in-place since Dr. Bhattacharya’s research.
My thoughts wandered as I started recalling that upper elementary school boy and his younger brother that I used to give rides to school on rainy days. I remembered when they reached high school, took national tests making such high grades they received a great deal of So Cal recognition, that they had gone on to attend college, Jay at Stanford, that he became a doctor. I lost track of his further studies but have since learned they were in economics.
Now I read he has also focused some of his work on aging issues associated with older people. When last I spoke with his mother we hadn’t discussed our children or grandchildren. Neither of us have been out in the neighborhood for a while but there will be much to talk about when next we meet.
Meanwhile, if I kept an isolation diary it might read something like this I poached from another blogger whose name or blog I apologize for forgetting.
Isolation
Day 31: I had a conversation with a spider today. She seems nice – is a Web Designer.
There seems to be no one unified message so what do you think about businesses reopening, sheltering-in-place, everyone continuing to wear masks, older people being expected to continue staying in?
It's interesting to hear of someone reputable suggesting that the stay-at-home policy is unnecessary. Most of the lockdown protesters seem to be the childish "don't tell me what to do" brigade. We do need someone to outline the case for ending the lockdown, giving well-researched and convincing arguments, as a balance to the endless media and government insistence that staying at home is absolutely essential.
ReplyDeleteThe research certainly does give us much to consider. Will be interested in the future research. Wonder if others have researched similarly and what their numbers and conclusions reveal.
DeleteEssential businesses are open here anyway. Grocers, chemists, vegetable sellers, and the like as well as home delivery restaurants are open and extend good service. From tomorrow, further easing is expected in most parts of India.
ReplyDeleteInteresting how India is approaching this. We, too, in Calif. have essential businesses open as you describe. We’ll see how further easing goes in both of our countries.
DeleteThat must have been interesting seeing someone you knew as a child now a prominent speaker. I am still of the opinion, as a person of 80 years with underlying health conditions, that isolation and face masks are my only choice. It is so confusing with all the conflicting data. We are still learning about this killer disease.
ReplyDeleteYes, it was surprising he was in the national news though I knew he had become quite accomplished as has his younger brother. I agree, we’re probably wise to mask, take care in our activities and contacts with so much still unknown about this virus.
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ReplyDeleteThe spider was really funny.
I think a combination of things that people follow carefully is what is going to have to happen. We are due for a depression (not just a recession) and this whole mess will take over a year!
ReplyDeleteI agree, we’re likely in for quite a ride as the medical issues associated with the virus and the consequential economic issues become resolved.
DeleteIt's all very confusing. I can see the validity in both arguments: staying in a shutdown situation is obviously not the answer long-term. But merely reopening everything as if we can return to Normalcy isn't either. There is such a failure of clear, consistent, and mature leadership from the federal government. No states know what support will be available. It's a free-for-all, and there is no sense of security.
ReplyDeleteSo true, an atmosphere possibly deliberately fostered by this Administration for their own political purposes, I think.
DeleteWe don't know. I saw a meme a while back that said we used to think lack of information was the problem-- now we know that's not true. We have so much information with no idea what part of it is true other than our own experiences-- if we can rely on that.
ReplyDeleteI think there is a very real lack of information about this virus which continues to be a problem. Science has established a few facts but with inadequate testing they are hampered. Federal Govt negligent not honestly addressing this issue for population security. Anecdotal accounts are just that, not to be discounted but not to be given more significance than just what they are. Even this study is small and the reliability has been questioned in peer review just as good science does. A couple issues of study questioned — the viability of the test administered to participants — concern enriched group of participants of those seeking to learn if they had virus so not good cross-section. Need results of other studies, if viable, being completed around the world and U.S. Can be challenging, as you say, to find truth but I find there is some available.
DeleteI’m quite surprised that a country like the USA cannot test more people. That’s what I constantly hear – we need more testing. I think that would reassure people. The governor of Georgia is re-opening the state now, without having told mayors of majors cities, like Atlanta. Here in Tennessee, the governor is also going to reopen the state on Monday. Both are avid Republicans, so they are more interested in the economy that saving humans lives. How many died here so far? 42,000 as of today? This is quite a huge number. I also think that all those people who are protesting to stop confinement, and protesting without masks, if they become sick, should not go to hospitals and bring more work to overworked health workers. If they want to go outside, then bear the consequences. As for example, quite a few numbers of those who attended D. Trump last rally became infected. Staying in place is more prudent.
ReplyDeleteI think your points are well-taken. and I agree that sheltering-in-place is wise presently. I believe our President has a different agenda well beyond insuring the security and life of the American people and even reviving our economy as he moves toward becoming an autocratic leader with absolute powers. He could have long ago, and should have, aided in facilitating that ample tests would be available to all U.S. states. He has chosen to not do so except in haphazard spasmodic half-hearted ways foisting onto each state a responsibility that heretofore had been one our federal government assumed. And, of course, he alters the truth all along the way.
DeleteInstead, after-the-fact of disavowing federal responsibility, our President's son-in-law had the wording on long-standing written policy changed to support that view -- one states governors and the American pubic had been unable to plan for in advance of this pandemic. It's the old argument about size of federal government and who should be in charge of what, but a deadly way with all the lives being lost, people ill, economical consequences to force this issue in this manner. Once again our President's actions demonstrate he truly does not care about the lives of the American people, likely would view insurrection as a positive for him IMHO. In fact, that is exactly how leaders become dictators history has repeatedly shown, including during our lifetime.
My opinion is that I prefer to err on the side of caution. I have friends who have scoffed at the precautions only to get caught … 2 of them very sick with the virus and now humming a different tune. At my age I don't dare to take chances. I am in Week 7 of complete isolation and will stay like this until I am sure it's safe. My 3 children are very glad I've made this decision.
ReplyDeleteGlad you continue to be safe. I share your view and continue in isolation, also. I do mask when I drive for occasional selective pick ups and to purchase some drive thru food items. So far, I haven’t known anyone who has the virus.
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